A Manga Is Causing Earthquake Panic in Japan

Earthquakes can’t be predicted. Scientists agree that precise predictions of a time, place, and magnitude is not possible with current technologies.  Yet a years-old Japanese manga that claims a “megaquake”—those above a magnitude of 8.0 on the Richter scale—will strike on July 5 has generated panic and deterred some inbound travelers for the past several months.  The 2021 reprint of The Future I Saw by Ryo Tatsuki, a retired mangaka in her 70s, warns that a “huge” tsunami “three times the size” of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake will wash over countries in the Pacific Ocean. The first edition of the manga, published in 1999, had referred to a “great disaster” in March 2011 that coincided with the earthquake that killed more than 18,000 people and caused the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant disaster. Last month, Tatsuki appeared to scale back her prediction about a July 5 megaquake, telling the national newspaper Sankei that it may not happen. But she fell short of entirely withdrawing her warning. TIME has reached out to Tatsuki for comment. The 2021 reprint has sold more than 1 million copies in Japan, and social media content that has racked up millions of views is fueling the scientifically unfounded fears. In recent weeks, two Hong Kong-based airlines alone have cut down on flights to southern Japan due to lower passenger interest. “We are surprised that such rumors have led to cancellations,” the Tokushima Tourism promotion division said. The Japanese government has warned about earthquake speculation. In April, it released a statement that, “predicting earthquakes by specifying the date, time, and location is difficult with current scientific knowledge.” Last month, Japan Meteorological Agency director-general Ryoichi Nomura said in a news conference that it was “regrettable that people are being affected by baseless information in this age of modern science.” Japan has long been a hotbed of seismic activity due to its position in the Pacific Ring of Fire. In August, JMA issued an advisory that “the likelihood of a new major earthquake is higher than normal” in relation to the Nankai Trough, a 560 mi. oceanic trench to Japan’s south. Earthquakes arising from the Nankai Trough are as the geologists Kyle Bradley and Judith A. Hubbard put it, “the original definition of the ‘Big One.’” Earlier this year, a government panel issued a report stating that a megaquake along the Nankai Trough has an 80% chance of happening in the next 30 years. Under the worst-case scenario, as many as 298,000 people could die, the report added. Japan experiences about 1,500 earthquakes a year, almost a fifth of the global total. The country has spent decades putting earthquake preparedness plans in place.  Given the history and frequency of earthquakes in Japan, concern is understandable. But JMA’s Nomura has “strongly” urged the “public not to take irrational actions driven by anxiety.” JMA remains a reliable source of information about earthquakes in Japan, as are the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the British Geological Survey (BGS), and the European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC) in their respective regions. Callum Sutherland contributed reporting from London.