The Deadly Paradox of American Gun Violence

Last week, Charlie Kirk was shot and killed in Utah while answering a question about gun violence in America. Hours later, a Colorado high school was added to the nation’s grim tally of school shootings. Two tragedies collided in one day, forcing us to face an old truth of American life: America’s gun carnage is not the cost of freedom, but the product of political choices.  The striking fact is that crime overall is falling. Murders spiked in the last year of the initial Trump Administration, but then plummeted, dropping 11.6% in 2023 and another 15.8% in 2024, the sharpest back-to-back declines on record. Violent crime more broadly is at its lowest point in half a century. By the measures we normally use to talk about public safety, America is doing better than at any point in decades.  Even as violent crime has fallen, the sharp rise in mass shootings after Congress allowed the federal assault weapons ban to elapse in 2004 and the recent rise in political violence are reasons for deep concern. We are haunted instead by images of Kirk bleeding out on stage, Minnesota legislators shot, children running from schools, and Americans cut down in public places. Read more: Gun Violence Impacts All Americans Mass shootings are a uniquely American problem. These events are not the main driver of national homicide rates, but they dominate our consciousness because they strike at the heart of public life. They make every supermarket and classroom feel like a potential crime scene.  Why do these shootings persist, even as overall crime recedes? One reason is that the availability of increasingly lethal firearms continues to grow dramatically. In the aftermath of the Supreme Court’s Bruen decision in 2022, gun sales surged, while oversight weakened in most states. While crime is cyclical, gun supply is cumulative. The United States is flooded with nearly half a billion guns, and the stockpile does not vanish just because the murder rate dips.  Another part of the answer lies in politics. In the past, fatal school shootings often triggered a wave of public support for stronger regulation. For years, that appetite for reform was countered by the organized power of the gun lobby. But the landscape shifted after the killing of 17 children and faculty at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Fla. in 2018. Gun safety groups began to build serious political operations. Our research shows that since 2018, gun safety PACs have stepped up dramatically, mobilizing financial resources by up to 4,195% close to elections.  This is a remarkable change. For decades, the gun safety side lacked the financial muscle to translate public opinion into political pressure. Today, groups like Everytown for Gun Safety, Brady, and Giffords are trying to meet the moment in the nation’s most competitive congressional districts. The newfound energy of gun safety PACs means that tragedy no longer produces a one-sided response. Instead, a flood of money from both sides cancels out, producing stalemate rather than reform. Still, the broader story remains grim. Other developed nations have responded to single catastrophic shootings by enacting laws that sharply reduced future risk; Australia and the United Kingdom tightened regulations, and saw mass killings become far less common. The United States has had Columbine, Virginia Tech, Sandy Hook, Parkland, Uvalde, and yet our policies hardly budge. Read more: Gabby Giffords: I Mourn for Charlie Kirk’s Family The disconnect between public opinion and political action is staggering. Polling consistently shows that most Americans favor stricter gun laws. A Pew survey in 2023 found 66% favored banning high-capacity magazines, and nearly two-thirds of Americans support banning large-capacity magazines. The reality is that most Americans do not own these weapons, and most gun owners neither want nor use them. In a 2013 survey of criminologists, public health scholars, and legal academics, an assault weapons ban was ranked the single most effective measure among 20 policy options for reducing mass shootings.  Yet even after the May 2022 shootings in Uvalde and Buffalo, Congress managed to pass only the limited Bipartisan Safer Communities Act. Even this meager measure is being dismantled by the Trump Administration. So where does that leave us after last week’s tragedies? On one hand, the country is safer from violent crime than at any point in the last 50 years. On the other, America is more vulnerable to spectacular, devastating acts of mass violence than any of its peers, and the ominous threat of politically motivated violence is highly disturbing. It is a paradox that shapes how Americans see their own safety. Declines in robbery or burglary don’t erase the trauma of a single shooting spree.   Gun safety PACs should act now before momentum fades. Their rise reflects a recognition that data and outrage alone are not enough. The lesson of the last quarter century is that mass shootings in America do not automatically lead to change. Too often, they lead only to the next mass shooting.  The choice before the nation is whether to remain locked in this deadly gun violence paradox, where overall crime falls even as extraordinary firearm tragedy defines our public life, or to finally act on what most Americans already believe.  Until we close the gap between opinion and policy, mass shootings will remain the most American crime of all.