The Hard Part for Moldova Comes Next

The recent election in Moldova may prove to be a historic event. The reformist Party of Action (PAS), led by President Maia Sandu, has consolidated its power as it readies the country for E.U. membership. Although Moldova is home to just 2.4 million people, the vote is a clear blow to Russian designs in this small but strategic country. The Kremlin’s influence has been considerable in Moldova. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia has backed separatist forces in the breakaway Transnistria region, as a foothold to keep up pressure on the central government in Chișinău. Russian influence grew over time to include major penetration of the Moldovan security ministries and key economic sectors. Past presidents have also had close ties to Moscow, including communist Vladimir Voronin and socialist Igor Dodon. The only real antidote to the Russian challenge is sustained, reform-minded political leadership. That is what we are witnessing now. Read More: How Europe’s Poorest Country Could Win the Green Energy Race The PAS parliamentary win follows Sandu’s presidential victory last year. The result was a surprise as pre-election polls showed the two major Moscow-backed parties—the Patriotic Electoral Bloc (BEP), led by Dodon, and the National Alternative Movement (MAN)—receiving a near majority.  But PAS won 50.2% of the vote. BEP came in a distant second with 24.17% and MAN 7.96%. The votes of the parties that did not make it into parliament will be divided proportionately, meaning PAS will end up with several seats more than a bare majority of 51. Sandu’s commitment to reform and the E.U. is rock solid. Her parliamentary majority will allow her to pass the legislation needed to join the bloc, which she would like to achieve this decade. The symbolism of that would be a major blow to Moscow’s imperial project of promoting a “Russian world” that identifies ethnic Russians and Russian-speakers abroad to back the Kremlin’s interests. It would also undermine the substantial Russian control over Transnistria, a development that pro-Moscow columnists are actively discussing on Telegram. Moscow made considerable efforts to block a PAS win. Chișinău has accused Russian agents of spending €200 million—a staggering 1% of Moldova’s GDP—to buy votes during the presidential election and E.U. referendum last year. Sandu has also accused Russia of spending “hundreds of millions” to subvert the parliamentary election last weekend. Meanwhile, the country’s election commission barred the pro-Russian Heart of Moldova (PRIM) and Moldova Mare (PMM) parties from participating in the vote amid allegations of voter bribery, illegal financing, and money laundering. Multiple monitoring groups and investigations have likewise pointed to a flood of disinformation campaigns with links to Russia. One such investigation by the Associated Press found fake news sites that “impersonate legitimate Western media and pay ‘engagement farms’ in Africa, while AI bots are deployed to flood comment sections deriding PAS and the E.U.” BEP leader Dodon did not even wait for the first results to come in before declaring that he won the recent elections, and called for demonstrations outside of parliament. Fortunately, the crowds numbered only in the hundreds. A crucial reason was that election observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe said the vote was “competitive and offered voters a clear choice among political alternatives but the process was marred by serious cases of foreign interference, illicit financing, cyber-attacks, and widespread disinformation.” The OSCE preliminary observation was not without criticism of Chișinău for disqualifying PRIM and PMM just before the vote in a way that “limited their right to effective remedy,” but the overall election assessment was positive. The fate of Moldova now rests with Sandu and PAS. If they can use their fresh mandate to pass and implement the legislation needed to reform the country and join the E.U., the parliamentary election will be seen as a major event in the country’s evolution. Winning the election was hard, but making the transformational changes Sandu advocates will be far harder.