Trump May Have Already Redrawn the Senate Map

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President Donald Trump is a lame duck. That doesn’t mean his sway—for good or for ill—over his Republican Party is at all diminished.

Just look at the Senate map next year, already causing indigestion for the GOP operatives looking at a narrow majority that, in normal times, would be easy to maintain. Top recruits in New Hampshire and Georgia took a pass, a messy primary is unfolding in Texas, and North Carolina looks to be a ticking bomb. In each, Trump and his influence over a party he has remade is throwing into question seats that should be pick-ups for top-flight recruits or holds for well-regarded incumbents.

MAGA is a movement, but it can also be a political liability for a Republican Party trying to win over voters who won’t buy most of what it’s selling.

In New Hampshire, former Gov. Chris Sununu took a pass on the race to chase retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s seat. Sununu, the son of a former White House chief of staff and Governor and brother of a Senator, hails from one of the great political families in New England. He was a popular Governor who toyed with the idea of running for President himself, and seemed to have truly enjoyed his time in Concord. But he was, at times, a Trump critic, and that would have been a tough lift in a state that launched Trump’s trajectory in 2016. Trump said he would have supported Sununu, but no one makes a wise bet on the prospect that Trump keeps his word. (Former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, meanwhile, is seen as Republicans’ best backup plan for the New Hampshire seat. He previously ran for the job in 2014 against Shaheen; he did not win.)

In Georgia, Republican Gov. Brian Kemp this week decided against running against Sen. Jon Ossoff, seen as the most vulnerable incumbent Democrat on the board next year. The popular two-term Governor has a strong fundraising machine, support from the Establishment wing of the GOP, and a Rolodex that rivals presidential campaigns. But he became a Trump nemesis after refusing Trump’s calls in 2020 to “find” Republican votes in a state that Trump had lost. Trump returned fire two years later by supporting his primary challenger. Kemp prevailed, and some in Washington hold hope that he may be keeping powder dry for the White House rather than the Senate.

In Texas, Sen. John Cornyn is bracing for a potential primary from state Attorney General Ken Paxton in what may be the most expensive primary of the cycle. Paxton is a MAGA favorite, and has had Trump’s public backing through past allegations of malfeasance, but some polls suggest he would be a weaker candidate in a general election. A group backing Paxton this week launched its first television ads of the cycle against Cornyn—airing not in Texas but rather Palm Beach, Fla., where Trump has his private club. In response, Cornyn’s team is circulating a memo in the MAGAverse that shows Cornyn votes more in line with Trump’s priorities than Texas’ other Senator, Ted Cruz. All the while, Cornyn is staffing up his re-election team with a Grade A roster of talent, including some who are part of the Trump alumni network.

And in North Carolina, a swing state in every sense of the cliche, Sen. Thom Tillis is on the precipice of drawing a grievance-driven primary from a Trumpist. This week, Tillis came out against the nomination of Ed Martin as the U.S. Attorney for D.C., the top prosecutor in the capital, because of Martin’s role in organizing the Jan. 6 rally that led to the insurrection at the Capitol. Martin has since been an apologist for the rioters, which Tillis views as disqualifying. Trump can afford zero defections on the Judiciary Committee, where Tillis sits, and faces a deadline later this month to swap out Martin, who is in the role on an acting basis, for a Senate-confirmed nominee or another temporary seat filler. 

Zooming out, Democrats are broadly hopeful about 2026, as the party in power usually faces losses in the midterms. But this is a cycle that favors Republicans in the Senate. New Hampshire is an infinitely purple state despite breaking for a Republican for President just once since 1992. Georgia has gone blue just twice since 1984. Texas is a gimme’ for the GOP; despite Democratic dreams of winning, the last ones to win statewide were on the ballot in 1994. North Carolina has elected just two one-term Democratic Senators since 1998.

But Trump’s personality-driven brand of politics is already making this dicier than it needs to be. Trump has well-known beef with potential recruits in New Hampshire and Georgia, prompting them to stay on the bench. The prospect of a jump-ball endorsement in Texas of a MAGA loyalist over a respected former member of Senate Leadership has scrambled what should be an easy hold. And North Carolina’s seat may be hurled into uncertain territories because the incumbent is not the rubber stamp the White House wants. Taken together, it’s a harsh reminder that while Trump is never going to be on the ballot again, his influence will be.

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