Trump Needs to Get Real on Trade

The roller coaster that is President Donald Trump’s trade war steamed ahead this week. On Wednesday, a federal district court dealt a major blow to Trump when it ruled that his sweeping global tariffs were illegal. On Thursday, an appeals court ruled the levies could remain in place for now. And then, on Friday, Trump accused China of violating a preliminary trade deal and suggested he would respond. As all this unfolds and the U.S. legal system lumbers toward a final verdict, one thing is clear: the White House needs to get a real trade strategy, and fast.

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Few issues are more fundamental to Trump’s worldview than trade. For Trump, trade is not merely an economic issue, but a litmus test of whether America is winning or losing on the world stage. Even matters of war and peace, such as Taiwan and the South China Sea, have seemingly taken a back seat to Trump’s stubborn fixation on China’s trade surplus with the U.S.

During his first term, Trump launched a trade war against China with a goal, as he framed it, of punishing China’s unfair trade practices. The trade war ended with a Phase-one deal wherein China promised to increase its future purchases of American products and enact structural reforms. Ultimately, this deal failed to deliver. The Chinese underperformed on their pledges. Trump blamed the Biden Administration for not enforcing the deal.

Unbowed by the disappointment of his first trade war with China, Trump launched a second one when he returned to office earlier this year. This time, he surrounded himself with loyalists who supported his instincts for public confrontation and rapid escalation to force China to the negotiating table. Trump’s approach appeared to be built on an assumption that China’s economy was brittle, and Beijing would buckle under pressure.

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That bet backfired. China retaliated with counter-tariffs. Beijing also implemented novel new export controls on critical minerals and magnets upon which U.S. industries depend. Chinese policymakers moved swiftly to shore up China’s economy while expanding trade ties with other partners. Rather than fold, China punched back.

As the economic costs of the trade war mounted on both sides of the Pacific, Trump designated his Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to negotiate a 90-day truce. The Chinese accepted. Trump’s trade war with China is not over. It is merely paused. Trump will continue returning to the well of grievance about America’s trade imbalance with China until he can secure a deal that he can sell as a win to the American public.

But therein lies the rub. Based on my recent exchanges with Chinese officials and experts, it seems Beijing has taken America’s measure in recent weeks and concluded that China has greater capacity to withstand economic pain than the U.S. China’s leaders lack confidence that any agreement with the mercurial Trump will last. At a more fundamental level, China’s leaders are unclear on what specifically Trump seeks—and what he would offer in return.

On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Bessent said that U.S.-China talks were “a bit stalled” and suggested Trump and Xi Jinping “have a call.” But until the Trump Administration can articulate its concrete objectives, its strategy for achieving them, and its vision of a productive process for doing so, the U.S.-China trade war will stay stalemated.

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To be clear, the Trump Administration has legitimate grievances about China’s unfair economic practices. China’s market access barriers, forced technology transfers, and state-directed subsidies to preferred industries and businesses have created massive global trade distortions. But grievance is not a strategy. And daily improvisation is not a formula for progress in negotiations.

The 90-day trade truce gives the Trump Administration time and space to do its homework. That means discarding the failed assumptions that Xi will cave under pressure and instead doing the hard work of homing in on what specifically Trump is aiming to achieve and what he is prepared to give in return.

In the end, trade policy is not about scoring points or undermining competitors. It is about making America stronger, safer, and more prosperous. If Trump wants to succeed, he will need to move beyond theatrics and prepare for the grinding process of negotiating with China that awaits.