What to Expect as Hurricane Erick Makes Landfall on Mexico’s Pacific Coast

Hurricane Erick made landfall on Mexico’s Pacific Coast on Thursday morning, bringing the possibility of “life-threatening flooding and mudslides” to  the western state of Oaxaca, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). 

The hurricane was downgraded from a Category 4 to a Category 3 storm as it landed, with maximum sustained winds near 125 mph. The center of the hurricane is expected to move inland over southern Mexico throughout the day, and is expected to produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches in the states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. The NHS has warned of possible life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas with steep terrain. A life-threatening storm surge is also expected to cause coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast.

A hurricane warning is in place between Acapulco and Puerto Angel, a region still scarred by Hurricane Otis, a devastating Category 5 hurricane that made landfall near Acapulco in October 2023, killing 52. The west of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana are under a hurricane watch, meaning that hurricane conditions are possible, but not currently expected. The hurricane is expected to rapidly weaken over the mountains of Mexico, with the entire system dissipating Thursday night or early Friday. 

Erick is the first major hurricane of the year. June marks the official beginning of hurricane season, which typically continues until the end of November. In the U.S., the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has predicted an “above-normal” hurricane season.  

The storm system caused concern after it doubled in strength in just one day. The phenomenon of rapid intensification, defined as an increase in maximum winds of at least 35 mph within a 24-hour period, has been linked to climate change and makes it harder for forecasters to accurately predict a storm’s impact. Last hurricane season, the NHC documented 34 episodes of rapid intensification—nearly double the average of the past 10 years.