What's At Stake If Companies, NGOs Don't Go To Belém for COP30

There are just under 100 days before this year’s United Nations climate summit kicks off in Brazil. In my survey of business and civil society leaders, conducted in formal interviews and in casual conversations, I hear a version of the same answer about their plans for the conference known as COP30: uncertainty.  In short, companies and non-profits remain undecided whether to make the trek to the Amazonian city of Belém for the two weeks of talks that begin Nov. 10. Because of both logistics and the changing dynamics of global climate leadership, many are considering limiting their journeys to side events in Rio de Janeiro or São Paulo. In a call with members of the press last week, André Corrêa do Lago, who will serve as COP30 president, celebrated the related climate events happening all over Brazil, but insisted that companies and NGOs should still show up in Belém. “We are delighted that they come to other events, before the COP, in Rio or São Paulo, but Belém is the place,” he said. “We need the business sector to be present in Belém.” At the center of the planned private sector involvement in Belém is the so-called “action agenda,” an officially sanctioned set of priorities that take place apart from the negotiations between countries. The announced COP schedule includes specific days focused on topics including energy, transport, trade, finance, and carbon markets that companies may want to join.  Themed days have become a mainstay of U.N. climate conferences, but this year’s Brazilian organizers insist that the approach this time will be different. In past COPs, organizers emphasized the announcement of new private sector commitments. This time around, organizers insist that themed meetings will drill down into “implementation” rather than tout new high-level pledges.  Officials will try to build on the programs and commitments announced at previous U.N. climate conferences—assessing their progress and identifying opportunities for improvement. This includes everything from promises to limit methane emissions to commitments to halt deforestation. They hope that businesses will share at COP concrete plans for how to meet those past pledges at a time when many businesses are backtracking on their ambition. COP officials are also planning to create what they are calling a “granary of solutions” that will give attendees—particularly businesses—a comprehensive look at the many solutions that are working, thereby encouraging others to take similar actions.   Many companies and non-profits are still deciding whether they want to take part in Belém. ​​In the public narrative, steep prices and limited room availability have received the brunt of the blame for the reticence of some climate leaders to show up in Belém. There is no doubt that this is a big issue for some civil society groups. Email list serves and WhatsApp groups are buzzing as advocates look around for affordable accommodation. That said, the news reports touting outlandish nightly rates running into the tens of thousands of dollars are largely outdated; new relatively affordable housing stock has become available on the conference’s official booking site (though many of these accommodations don’t have the amenities to which western business travelers are accustomed).  But while the accommodation options are an easy excuse, they aren’t the primary thing holding some climate folks back. Many companies and big environmental non-profits that plan to show up in Rio or São Paulo have also booked rooms in Belém as they decide whether it’s worth the extra stop. In some ways, the thought process is like one you might engage in before any other professional or even social gathering. Private sector leaders are asking, “who else will be there?” And “what will we actually get done?” Nothing will get done if firms don’t show up. In recent years, climate observers have questioned whether the COP process is really worth all of the effort it takes—and whether it’s the best way for the private sector to spend its time. But the truth is it will only ever be worth its time if advocates seize on it.  That’s a potential loss for the U.S. firms that choose to sit it out. One set of companies expected to show up in force are firms located in India and China. That’s a change from recent years when large western companies have shown in force and Asian firms have remained more muted. It’s yet another indication of the shift of gravity away from the U.S. in global efforts to tackle climate change. To get this story in your inbox, subscribe to the TIME CO2 Leadership Report newsletter here.