Why Canada's Carney Is Softening His Line on Trump

Canada waited with baited breath as Prime Minister Mark Carney stepped foot in the Oval Office on Tuesday in a meeting for the ages. 

Barely a week earlier, Carney, who had vowed to fight back against Donald Trump’s taunts and threats to make Canada the “51st state,” resurrected his Liberal Party against a MAGA-like opponent in a stunning 25-point election turnaround.

Trump knew this. He opened the meeting by saying it was a “great honor” to have Carney visit. Then, he pivoted to himself. “As you know, he won a very big election in Canada, and I think I was probably the greatest thing that happened to him. His party was losing by a lot, and he ended up winning. So, I really want to congratulate him. It was probably one of the greatest comebacks in the history of politics, maybe even greater than mine.”

Early on, Trump struck a tone of, if not friendship, then at least something approaching the boundaries of bare respect. Memories of the ambush on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky were still fresh. “This is very friendly, this is not going to be like … we had another little blow up with somebody else. That was a much different … this is a very friendly conversation.”

A nation heaved a sigh of relief. The matter isn’t a mere issue of national pride or vanity, though that’s part of it. Trump has conceded that the use of military force to annex Canada is “highly unlikely,” but he still has the power to scupper $1 trillion a year in trade.

Read More: How Canada Got Hooked on the U.S. Economy

During the election, Carney ran against Trump as much as he did his Conservative opponent Pierre Poilievre. The Liberals flogged the slogan “Canada Strong” and the nationalist rallying cry “elbows up.” Carney vowed not to meet Trump until the President respected Canadian sovereignty. Trump, he warned, is “trying to break us, so America can own us.”

He was far more conciliatory on Tuesday. Carney is now a diplomat and statesman, not a politician on the hustings. “You’re a transformational President,” he said of Trump, “focused on the economy, with a relentless focus on the American worker, securing your borders, ending the scourge of fentanyl and other opioids, and in securing the world.”

It was, as some put it on social media, an “elbows down” moment. 

Carney avoided taking the bait for much of the meeting. Trump spoke most of the time; the Prime Minister sat there, letting the President hold court. Later, in private, during a working lunch, Carney would work on setting an agenda to renegotiate the trade relationship and, hopefully, take steps toward reducing the number or rate of tariffs.

As expected, the issue of making Canada the “cherished” 51st state arose. North of the 49th parallel, that’s a non-starter, to put it mildly. Here, Carney was prepared. “Well, if I may, as you know, from real estate, there are some places that are never for sale,” he said. “We’re sitting in one now,” he added, in reference to the White House. Trump nonetheless pressed the matter with a “never say never;” Carney then mouthed the word “never” five times. But that was it.

In a post-meeting press conference at the Canadian embassy, Carney said there was a “concrete path forward” for the two, a mutual desire to move forward with discussion on trade and other matters. He called the negotiations “complex.” When asked about his previous, more confrontational comments about Trump, Carney dodged the question.

Carney has made a quick transformation from campaigner to, if you’ll pardon the term, governor. The White House visit was not so much “elbows down” as it was “watch your elbows.” But he is softening his line on Trump nonetheless.

Carney and his team recognize that there’s a line to walk, a dance to dance. They get that dealing with Trump to his face is harder than talking about dealing with a mercurial, mercantilist U.S. President in front of a sympathetic homefront. The alternative is going toe-to-toe, alone, against the global hegemon and its intransigent President.

That would be a herculean, and foolish, undertaking for any nation—and certainly Canada and its rookie Prime Minister.