Why Kenya Now Faces an Uncertain Future

When former Prime Minister, champion of multiparty democracy, and longtime opposition leader Raila Odinga died on Oct. 15, Kenya lost the country’s most consequential figure of the past generation. Odinga, who served prison time for his steadfast support for democracy and political reform, played a critical role in replacing a colonial-era charter with the country’s current constitution, which imposes clearer limits on presidential power. He ran for President and lost five times, but in the 2022 election, he won the majority of the vote in all but two regions, thanks to his ability to build a strong following outside his regional and Luo ethnic base. Odinga wasn’t just a star of the past. His ability to hold the loyalty of one of Kenya’s largest and most diverse voting blocs; to unify the opposition Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), a center-left outfit; and to organize protests—and use them to win concessions from government—kept him a central political player. Odinga’s recent coalition with President William Ruto bolstered Kenya’s political stability at times when a return to the political violence of the past seemed possible, and his death now leaves Ruto in a much more vulnerable position. The ODM holds the second largest share of seats in Kenya’s parliament, and Odinga was the leader who decided most of the party’s policy positions on legislative issues. Ruto needed Odinga’s control of these votes to advance his agenda. Ruto responded to Odinga’s death by declaring a seven-day period of “mourning and deep reflection” in honor of “Odinga’s extraordinary contribution to our nation.” Odinga’s death leaves a large political vacuum. He had led the ODM since its creation in 2005 and had served as the party’s presidential candidate in every general election it contested. But senior members of the ODM opposed his alliance with Ruto—even as they joined his broad-based Cabinet—and continued to criticize the President despite the coalition. Many party leaders argued openly that Ruto’s flagging popularity gave the ODM a rare opportunity to peel away some of Ruto’s backers, but Odinga managed to keep the coalition intact. Younger ODM members who helped organize last year’s Gen Z protests—some of the biggest anti-government demonstrations since democracy was restored in the 1990s—denounced Odinga’s cooperation with Ruto as an act of political betrayal. These youth protesters oppose the Ruto government over living standards, often blatant government corruption, and its heavy hand toward demonstrators. Odinga’s passing has opened the door to intense debate within the ODM over whether, when, and how the party might abandon Ruto ahead of Kenya’s 2027 presidential election. On Oct. 16, the party chose Odinga’s 82-year-old brother as its interim leader, but no single figure within the ODM looks able to unite its members around a strong legislative and political strategy. It’s not just the ODM’s way forward that remains unclear. Would-be Presidents across the country know that success in the 2027 election will depend on winning over Odinga’s supporters. Ruto hoped that Odinga’s endorsement of him to serve another five-year term would help him lock down re-election in 2027, and opposition leaders had tried to pull Odinga into their camps. Unfortunately for all, the lack of any unifying figure within the ODM could simply fragment Odinga’s base as a bitter leadership fight within the party divides it into factions. The good news for Kenya is that at least in the near term, the dangerous political unrest we’ve seen in the past remains unlikely. Following a funeral in Odinga’s home region, tensions will run high, and four were indeed killed last week in Nairobi after security forces fired shots and teargas to disperse crowds mourning Odinga. But in a country where police brutality remains a hot political issue, Ruto’s need to keep the ODM within the governing coalition for as long as he can reduces the threat of wide-scale confrontations between police and mourners. Still, Kenya’s longer-term political outlook just got a lot murkier, as the scramble to win over Odinga’s supporters will intensify in the months ahead. With so many governments today led by strongmen—or would-be strongmen—in Africa and beyond, Odinga’s passing is a landmark loss.