Why There Could Be Fewer Black Friday Sales This Year

Shoppers hoping to capitalize on post-Thanksgiving sales in the coming days may find the discounts smaller than in years past. A record 187 million people intend to shop from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday this year, according to a consumer survey released by the National Retail Federation (NRF). That number is up more than three million shoppers from the previous record last year.  But while some retailers are offering major deals in the holiday week ahead, others appear to be paring back the potential savings—or at least spreading them out more over time. Here’s what to know.  Some companies quietly pull back on discounts “We’re going to see sales,” NRF Chief Economist Mark Mathews tells TIME of the coming days. “The question is whether or not we are going to see the breadth of sales that we have in the past.” Already in recent years, the promotions surrounding Thanksgiving have grown less concentrated. It has become more common for companies to roll out deals throughout the month rather than solely offering their major sales on Black Friday or Cyber Monday, in order to get a more consistent stream of spending from consumers.   Williams-Sonoma, the kitchen supply and home furnishings retailer, has offered fewer discounts in general over the past several years in what CEO Laura Albers has described as an effort to pull back on “up/down promotional pricing” that trains customers to wait for deals and instead be more upfront and consistent about prices. Meanwhile, companies such as Coach, Nike, and Ralph Lauren have adopted strategies to phase out promotions to keep discounts from impacting the exclusivity of their brands, Bloomberg reported. And with a number of companies facing increased costs this year as a result of President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff agenda, some retailers have said they don’t have as much leeway to discount their wares—or don’t see it as such a profitable move. The CEO of Therabody, for instance, which makes upscale sports massaging devices, will still mark down products but can’t afford to discount them as much as last year, Chief Executive Officer Monty Sharma said, according to Bloomberg. Other major companies also appear to be cutting back on their typical Thanksgiving-era deals. Edgar Dworsky, the founder of Consumer World, who tracks holiday pricing, told Reuters that Kohl’s, JC Penney and Macy’s are not offering some discounts on kitchen appliances that they previously did through sales prices, coupons and mail-in rebates. Less prominent companies have also reported facing difficult choices balancing the potential benefits of discounts against higher costs as a result of tariffs. “It’s complicated because of tariffs and how the retail math works,” Lisa Cheng Smith, the founder of New York-based Yun Hai Taiwanese Pantry, told CBS News earlier this month. “Do we offer less of a discount and try to preserve margins, or do we use the same promotion language and structures that customers have come to expect?” Read more: Bessent Says the U.S. Would Have to Pay Massive Refunds If Trump’s Tariffs Are Struck Down. Experts Aren’t So Sure With days still to go until Thanksgiving, shoppers are seeing impacts. Nearly half of consumers in a Deloitte survey released Monday said they have already seen higher prices for holiday items this season, while more than one-third say that retailers are offering fewer discounts. Matthews says that there is no one strategy for strained retailers to take when it comes to holiday sales. “We know that goods have increased, but we also know that the consumer is going to be going to the retailer where they think they’re getting the best value for money,” Matthews says. “So with those two dynamics in play, it’s really up to retailers to decide how they’re going to respond to that, and I do think we’re going to see a range of different responses across the number of retailers.” He says retailers will be looking to see what their competitors are doing, and that on-the-spot assessments of demand and real-time pricing changes will characterize how retailers adapt to the fickle holiday market. Many big retailers are still offering major discounts While some companies are retreating from Black Friday and Cyber Monday promotions, a handful of big retailers are offering major discounts this sale season.  Walmart will be discounting some items on its website by up to 50% starting Tuesday. The products going on sale will come from across the company’s departments, including tech, furniture, and fashion. Best Buy is also offering major deals, with some of the company’s tech products already on sale for more than 60% off. Discounts span departments at Target as well, where shoppers can buy, everything from electronics to toys to clothing at discounted rates. Other big retailers offering early Black Friday deals include Amazon, where thousands of products across categories are up to 45% off; Wayfair, where discounts go as high as 80%; Ulta Beauty; Dick’s Sporting Goods; and Sephora.  Are shoppers cutting back, too? Despite the high number that are expected to shop later this week, consumers say they are cutting back on Black Friday spending over concerns about their personal finances. The Deloitte survey found that shoppers are planning to spend 4% less than last year during the period between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, marking the first time in five years that consumer spending is expected to decline.  Those making less than $50,000 intend to spend 12% less, while those making between $100,000 and $199,000 were the only group to say they plan to spend more, with an increase of 5%. Shoppers pointed to higher costs of living and financial constraints as the main reasons they’re planning to spend less this year.  Read more: 6 Things to Know (About Yourself) to Have a Successful Black Friday Matthews notes, however, that those factors have not historically deterred spending. “We haven’t seen any correlation between sentiment and reduced spend,” he says, describing the “most important macro factor” as “the consumer as being sentimentally weak but fundamentally sound.” When people do have to cut spending, Matthews says that it often isn’t on goods, or gifts for loved ones, which are often at the heart of Black Friday and Cyber Monday deals.  “If people are cutting back, what we’ve seen is that they’re cutting back on the services side, and not so much on the good side,” he says.  Consumers are still expected to spend $127 billion over Thanksgiving weekend, according to projections by the International Council of Shopping Centers, an increase from last year.   Holiday spending continuing through the rest of the year is also anticipated to set records, with retail sales through November and December expected to surpass one trillion dollars for the first time, according to the NRF.