Why Trump's Threats Won't Alter Putin's Course in Ukraine

On Monday, President Donald Trump signaled growing impatience with Vladimir Putin by telling reporters in Scotland that Russia’s president must halt the fighting in Ukraine within “10 or 12 days” to avoid sanctions and secondary tariffs, tightening a 50-day deadline he set earlier this month. But this latest threat is unlikely to change Putin’s plans. Judged from the outside, it’s hard to see why the war continues. Putin, the one person who could bring it to an end, can see that Russia has paid a steep price over the past three years and five months to gain just 20% of Ukraine’s land. By some estimates, Russia has suffered more than one million battlefield casualties, with a quarter million killed. The war has strengthened NATO, which Putin says is Russia’s true enemy, by bringing in new members and persuading European governments to spend much more on defense. Since the invasion, roughly one million young Russians have fled the country to avoid conscription, find better job prospects, or both.  Though scaling up Russia’s war machine briefly boosted its economy, the long-term loss of energy customers in Europe, a surge of inflation that has pushed interest rates to historic highs, and a deepening reluctance among Russian consumers to spend leaves Russia’s economic future on dangerous ground. How hard would it be, outsiders wonder, for Putin to cut a deal, stop the bleeding, declare victory, and consolidate Russia’s gains? But Putin believes time is still on his side. In the coming months, Russian forces will probably gain enough new ground in Ukraine’s east to keep him committed to a strategy of maximum pressure to wear away at Ukrainian resolve. Drone and missile strikes on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure will continue because Kyiv hasn’t found a way to stop them. Russian forces will apply more pressure in other regions to further thin Ukraine’s defenses. That’s enough to persuade Russia’s president to stay in the game.  Not that Volodymyr Zelensky is ready to offer concessions. Ukraine’s president is weakened domestically by a failed attempt by his government to leash a corruption watchdog that had begun growling at his political allies. Even if he were stronger, Ukrainians have absorbed much too much Kremlin-inflicted pain to offer concessions substantial enough to satisfy a Russian president who will likely want more. Nor will Ukrainians trust Putin and future Russian leaders to honor the promises they make to end the current fighting.  Trump doesn’t have the leverage to change any of this. There isn’t enough direct trade flow between the U.S. and Russia to credibly threaten, but he has warned of possible tariffs on countries that trade with Russia. Yet, Putin has good reason to doubt that Trump will pick new fights with China and India, now Russia’s two biggest energy customers, particularly as Trump works to lock down big trade deals with both countries. EU sanctions won’t alter Putin’s calculus. The main tool in Europe’s 18th sanctions package against Russia, an adjustable oil price cap, will force Russian oil exporters to rely more heavily on the shadow fleet of tankers they’ve used to evade the cap. But without U.S. support, their impact won’t amount to much, and the EU has little ability to slow Russia’s defense sector. Nor is Trump’s ability to pressure Zelensky as potent as it appeared just weeks ago, because the ever-changing, seemingly contradictory tactical approaches to both Ukraine and Russia suggest the U.S. president might again change his mind. Putin and Zelensky are also aware that Trump has many more demands on his attention at the moment.  There’s one other possible reason Putin might prolong this increasingly costly war of attrition. Perhaps his confidence in continuing the war is one more item on a lengthening list of his strategic mistakes. The invasion itself was a spectacular miscalculation of both Russian and Ukrainian strength. Perhaps he’s not making a deal because he still can’t see how much Russia has to lose.