The Future of Climate Progress Is Being Built in the Global South

The headlines are bleak. Record heatwaves, unprecedented wildfires, dying coral reefs, a backtracking United States, and millions of lives upended. Now, a new UN report confirms that countries’ latest climate plans still fall far short of limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Yet beneath those headlines, a seismic shift is underway. While Washington backpedals and targets slip, the real action is now in countries like China, India, Brazil, and around a dozen critical middle-income countries: the new engines of the clean economy. At the 30th UN climate summit in Brazil, the geopolitical center of gravity is shifting. Rich countries still bear the greatest responsibility to act. But middle-income countries, which account for over 60% of global emissions and 40% of GDP, are now driving progress, from Colombia’s push to phase out fossil fuels to Brazil uniting countries around a breakthrough financial solution to save forests. It’s not the moral imperative driving their transition but the economics. They see climate action as the path to growth, energy security, and global competitiveness. Countries’ new climate plans provide a foundation. Even though some claim the Paris Agreement is failing, it’s not—over 110 countries to date have returned with stronger climate plans this year, from Ethiopia to Ecuador. In 10 years these plans have brought us from a perilous 4 degree future to one closer to 2.3-2.5 degrees. It’s still far from enough. So even as science show temporary overshoot of the 1.5°C target is now likely, countries must reaffirm that target as our guiding star. It is not an on-off switch, but rather the benchmark for a healthy, livable future. It’s why at this UN summit, countries need to develop a roadmap to get us on track and move much faster toward this new economy. It can be hard to hold two truths at once: The climate crisis is severe, yet extraordinary progress is underway. Yet that is what we must do. Emerging economies across the Global South will be key to making it happen. Technology is spurring countries’ transitions Clean energy’s rapidly falling costs are already speeding up this shift across the Global South. Emerging economies today generate more than half the world’s solar power. Brazil generates more solar than Germany. Battery prices are plummeting, and electric vehicles surged from roughly 4% of car sales to more than 20% in four years. Even tough industries like steel and concrete are innovating to lower emissions. For countries like India and Pakistan, energy security has driven the switch to renewables. Today three-quarters of the global population lives in fossil fuel-importing countries, many of which are keen to reduce dependence on volatile imports. Yet technology alone is not enough. Fossil fuels still supply over 81% of our energy, and according to Global Forest Watch forests continue to vanish at a rate of 18 soccer fields every minute, shrinking one of our most vital carbon sinks. Moving from climate to economic transitions That’s why we cannot just focus on the what of targets and technologies, but the how. Progress depends on how countries orchestrate the shift across sectors like energy, food, land, and cities. Brazil has made this a prime focus for the COP: catalyzing countries to make climate central to their economic transition. Many countries are already doing this, advancing climate measures because they boost their industries’ competitiveness and create jobs. India’s rollout of 50,000 electric buses by 2027 will connect millions to jobs and clean the air. Brazil’s “bioeconomy” could create 833,000 new forest-based jobs. China’s clean energy surge cut its emissions 1% in the first half of 2025 and drove 10% of its GDP last year. Yet countries’ economies won’t thrive if they can’t withstand floods, droughts, and heatwaves. It’s why countries must rapidly step up investments in climate adaptation, a major focus at COP30. The good news: Every dollar invested in resilience can yield tenfold returns, and scaling these investments can create over 280 million jobs in developing countries by 2035. Ethiopia, for instance, is restoring degraded landscapes to help farmers deal with floods and droughts. Financing the global transition For the countries now driving the global climate transition, progress hinges on finance. Developing countries need about $1.3 trillion a year in external finance by 2035, only around 1% of global GDP. Cuts to aid in the U.S. and Europe make reaching this target harder, but have also sparked new thinking about reforming the global financial system. We need to move from “climate finance” to aligning the entire financial system behind this transition by uniting public, private, international, and domestic capital. New “Country Platforms” have emerged as a promising tool to do just that. They align these myriad sources of finance behind governments’ climate and development plans and policy reforms—and Barbados, Brazil, Colombia, Rwanda, and others are showing how this can work. Brazil is championing this approach at COP30, from a roadmap to the $1.3 trillion goal to a new hub for capacity building across Global South countries. We now need the G20 and G7 to take this approach forward. This moment may seem gloomy, but underfoot, change is happening. Most countries are undertaking the immense task of transforming our 250-year-old fossil fuel-powered economy to one with climate and people at the center. The question is not whether progress is possible, but whether we choose to speed it up, starting now.