The World Isn't Valuing Oceans Properly

Troves of in-demand critical minerals sit untouched deep at the bottom of the ocean: nickel, cobalt, and copper, to name a few. With the stroke of a pen in April, President Donald Trump signed an Executive Order to catalyze a “gold rush” in pursuit of those deposits. The value of those minerals could total in the trillions, and the Trump Administration wants American companies to access them in a bid to bolster the economy. Pushback to the move has largely focused on the potential for ecological damage and the order’s flaunting of international rules. There is also a good case to be made that the economic and financial math may not add up. For one, the outlook of different critical minerals is evolving. Cobalt demand projections, for example, have fallen below expectations as new battery chemistries emerge that rely less on that metallic element.

And then there are the costs associated with missed opportunities and unknown side effects. The depths of the ocean where deep-sea mining would take place have been untouched for millennia. In those waters, flora and fauna that could unlock medical breakthroughs sit untouched, and ocean dynamics mediate global climate conditions. “If we start mucking around with our seabed floor in pursuit of short-term wealth and growth,” says Hawaii Governor Josh Green, a vocal opponent of seabed mining, “God knows what the long-term damage will be.”

Read more: Fishing Communities in the Philippines Are Fighting for their Future as Waters Rise

The bigger problem is that human society—policymakers, companies, and financial institutions—simply hasn’t figured out how to value all that oceans do for us. To grapple with a full assessment of the economic value of oceans would mean a wholesale rethinking of how we interact with the world deep in the seven seas. 

Using economics to value nature isn’t new. For decades, scientists and economists have crunched the numbers on the contribution of what is known as ecosystem services. Those “services” include everything from coastal protection provided by coral reefs to the value of fisheries to local communities that rely on them for sustenance. Listing the services is one thing; tallying their worth is another, challenging task. Researchers say that the total economic value of oceans needs to include the direct use of oceans like fishing and tourism as well as indirect functions like storing carbon and protecting biodiversity that keeps the planet in balance. 

The math isn’t simple. How can you put a price on, say, the role that oceans play regulating the global climate? Nonetheless, researchers consistently come up with figures that reach into the tens of trillions of dollars in annual value. Whatever the precise number, a bigger problem is that leaders in government and business aren’t using it. “A wide array of methods and techniques for ecosystem valuation exist, but are only occasionally implemented in policy decisions,” reads a 2019 paper from the European Marine Board, an ocean-policy think tank. No country has fully accounted for the economic value of oceans in its policymaking. A survey of leaders in developing countries found that, even though many of those nations depend on marine resources, protecting marine life ranked last among the U.N. Sustainable Development Goals.

To account for the value of oceans in decision making, researchers are pushing for countries to adopt what has become known as natural capital accounting. That would entail incorporating data on the ecological and economic value of oceans into country-level accounting systems. Such recommendations are not the work of radical activists or fringe academics. The World Bank, for example, advises that low-income countries use natural capital accounting to assess and protect their natural resources.

In the absence of such a formal move, leaders concerned about economic stability would be wise to shift their thinking. In some cases, that may mean moving away from viewing the ocean as a source of easily exploited resources. In others, it may mean moving from viewing ocean conservation as an altruistic act to an act of economic self-preservation.

Read more from TIME’s Ocean Issue

‘Ignorance’ Is the Most Pressing Issue Facing Ocean Conservation, Says Sylvia Earle

Meet the Marine Biologist Working to Protect Our Oceans from Deep-Sea Mining

Geopolitical Tensions are Shaping the Future of our Oceans