Javier Milei Is Losing His Grip on Argentina

Argentina’s President Javier Milei, a man who’s enjoyed extraordinary success with a “move-fast-and-break-things” approach to politics and economic policy, is starting to look a lot more vulnerable. And at an inconvenient moment, with the approach of the country’s Oct. 26 midterm elections, which could mark the beginning of the end for Milei and his reform efforts. In early October, lawmakers resoundingly overturned two vetoes that were part of his economic reform process: Argentina’s Senate voted 59-7 to overturn Milei’s block on new funding for universities and 58-7 against his attempt to veto new money for pediatric health care. The Chamber of Deputies, Argentina’s lower house, had already rejected Milei’s vetoes. Milei had argued that both bills would force government to spend money it doesn’t have, but opponents in the Senate argued the plans were essential on moral, not fiscal, grounds.  These defeats come at a time of scandal. Allegations linking Jose Luis Espert, head of the ruling Liberty Advances ticket in Buenos Aires province, to a corruption scandal look likely to damage Milei’s party’s standing. Espert faces accusations of close ties with Federico Machado, a man indicted in the U.S. for drug trafficking and money laundering. Documents surfaced that appear to show Espert received a $200,000 transfer from Machado after the former had denied its existence. Though Espert denies any wrongdoing and quit the race on Oct. 6, the damage is done, in part because his name and photo will remain on the ballot. The story is particularly damaging at a moment when public anger over violence is rising in Buenos Aires province in the wake of a recent high-profile crime involving drug-trafficking gangs. This is not the first time that Milei, who rose to power in part with attacks on the venality of Argentina’s elite, has been tarred with corruption accusations. In 2023, leaked audio messages suggested a senior official had discussed kickbacks with a drug company. Worse still, the leak appeared to implicate Karina Milei, his sister and chief of staff. (She denies the allegations.) Milei faces these challenges at a time when the country’s financial conditions continue to deteriorate and help from the Trump Administration is uncertain. Last month, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s promises of aid triggered optimism within the ruling party. But Washington’s plan didn’t offer many specifics, and Bessent later clarified that any U.S. help would come only as a currency swap, would not include a plan to buy Argentinian debt, and would come only after the midterms. Milei’s economic team will soon travel to Washington, and he is set to sit down with Trump on Oct. 14, but a major breakthrough before the upcoming midterms is unlikely. For all these reasons, Milei’s party is set to underperform in the midterms, where half the seats in the Chamber and a third in the Senate are up for grabs. The party will likely draw less than 40% of the vote, an outcome that would bolster the view that Milei is politically wounded, and leave him with fewer willing negotiating partners for the next round of unpopular reforms. Milei’s party will also, of course, face greater opposition in Congress, further damaging the prospects of his agenda. For instance, after the midterms, Milei will likely have to take the hugely controversial step of devaluing the Argentine peso, and for that he’ll need the full support of his base. A tepid election showing will make it more difficult. His party already holds just seven out of 72 seats in the Senate and 38 out of 257 seats in the Chamber in Argentina’s fragmented politics. Other political players, including governors and members of former President Mauricio Macri’s allied Republican Proposal party, will demand more concessions on reform and a much greater say in Milei’s future policy choices—concessions he will be reluctant to concede. In November 2023, Milei won a commanding presidential election. He is weakened, and yet his opponents underestimate his continuing appeal with voters exhausted by decades of political dysfunction. The big question is if Milei, off-balance now, can bounce back.