Ukraine Can Win the Energy War

Ukraine had a bruising weekend. Much of the country faced between eight and 16 hours of power cuts on Sunday following the “most massive strike” against its power plants since the war began. Yet Kyiv’s counterattack was also a reminder that Ukraine is waging its own war on Russia’s energy infrastructure, and the pace has only been accelerating in recent months. This campaign could bring President Vladimir Putin’s war effort to a standstill—a few more targeted hits and both the Kremlin’s military supply chains and economy could be sufficiently hobbled to force a peace. In the first few months of 2025, at least 13 Russian refineries were hit. The pace of drone strikes has since grown to a blitz, with at least 21 of the largest 38 facilities damaged as of early October and 38% of Russia’s primary oil refining capacity down around the same time. Even the Russian attacks over the weekend were precipitated by significant Ukrainian strikes on Thursday that hit Lukoil’s Volgograd refinery for the sixth time; a power plant in Volgorechensk, 171 mi. northeast of Moscow; and an oil depot in Crimea. Ukraine has been using U.S. intelligence to target high-priority energy facilities in Russia, according to a report in the Financial Times, which suggests President Donald Trump is serious about forcing Putin into a peace settlement. The campaign is beginning to work. Russia still depends on oil and gas exports for up to 50% of its state budget, and exports dropped an estimated 26% in September with many more energy facilities forced offline in October. Gas exports are at a 50-year low and total oil refining is at a five-year low. Russia has even instituted export restrictions as it faces domestic fuel shortages of around 20%. Russians are beginning to feel the effects of the war. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian attacks come as President Trump has announced U.S. sanctions on Russian oil giants Lukoil and Rosneft. And the E.U. is currently debating whether and how to fully phase out all Russian fossil fuel imports by the end of 2027. Read More: Trump’s Sanctions on Russian Oil Are a Big Deal If the E.U. proposal is enacted, it would, alongside impactful U.S. sanctions, be a major step toward forcing the Kremlin to cease fire. Oil and gas revenues have kept the Russian war machine alive despite ever-mounting economic pressure. Indeed, Europe continues to pay Russia $1.35 billion each month for oil and gas imports, with the E.U. total since the full-scale invasion began amounting to roughly $250 billion. That figure exceeds the $211 billion that the U.S. Department of Defense estimates, conservatively, that the Kremlin has spent since the full-scale invasion. None of this is yet existential for the Kremlin or its war in Ukraine. Russia spent many years stockpiling over $640 billion in central bank reserves before the full-scale invasion in order to ride out any Western response, and currently only half of that amount is subject to sanctions. And Russia has an estimated 20-30% buffer of unused capacity at its refineries—which it could tap into at higher prices if global markets remain jittery over oil and gas. Nor are Russia’s latest attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure isolated events. Strikes on power plants, transmission lines, and substations have caused frequent and widespread blackouts in recent weeks. And for the first time, Putin’s forces have systematically targeted Ukraine’s natural gas facilities—the country has now lost as much as 60% of its natural gas production. Ukraine’s winter storages will be tapped out before the end of cold weather. Even more urgently, Ukraine’s natural gas pipeline network doesn’t have enough gas to maintain the system’s pressurization, so it has turned to costly imports, including from Greece, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. But whereas Ukraine is a welcome trading partner for its neighbors, Russia is a petro-state subject to broad energy sanctions by the West. Its very strength—fossil fuels—is thus also its greatest vulnerability. So, if Ukraine can sustain its attacks on Russian refineries, pipelines, petroleum ports, and related infrastructure, it may be able to bleed the Kremlin dry—or at least dry enough to force Putin into real peace negotiations. If the U.S. enforces the new sanctions, and the E.U. actually phases out Russian energy, the Kremlin has very few options to replace the lost revenue. The recent deal with China to build another natural gas pipeline will take years to be realized, and India is now curtailing its significant Russian oil imports—after it faced Trump’s wrath and punitive 50% tariffs. If Ukraine can keep the pressure up, it can sufficiently undermine the Russian budget to have a chance at ending the war. If President Zelenksy pulls this off, it may prove one of the more brilliant military strategies in history. And if President Trump supports it, he will rightfully be able to take credit for ending Russia’s war in Ukraine—he may even become a serious contender for that elusive Nobel Prize.