The Challenges of Trump's Gaza Peace Plan

On Monday, President Donald Trump proclaimed the “historic dawn” of a new Middle East while addressing the Knesset in Israel. Since Trump announced a ceasefire in Gaza last week, Israel’s relentless bombing and destruction of Gaza has stalled, Hamas has started releasing Israeli hostages, desperately needed food, medicine, and other humanitarian aid has started flowing into Gaza, and preparations are underway for the release of around 2,000 Palestinians held by Israel. Apart from these important steps, which comprise the first phase of Trump’s Gaza peace plan, halting plans of forcing Palestinians out of Gaza by the far right—at least for now—is significant. But Gaza, as we have known it, has been obliterated. Over the past two years, more than 10% of Gaza’s population is dead or wounded; about 90% of its population has been displaced; 78% of all structures have been destroyed or damaged; 95% of hospitals have been rendered non-functional; and 90% of the schools have been damaged or destroyed. Facing a dystopian reality, hundreds of thousands of displaced Palestinians have been walking back through the apocalyptic ruins of their neighborhoods and homes. Rebuilding Gaza would take tens of billions of dollars and decades. In the face of this devastating reality, President Trump’s plan amounts to a hostage release deal, a ceasefire of an uncertain term, and a prayer. A vague, thin plan The 20-point Trump peace plan is thin on details and principles. Who will administer Gaza in the meanwhile? Who will offer the billions required for reconstruction in the absence of a lasting political settlement to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? The plan proclaims that Israel will not “occupy or annex Gaza” and Hamas “will not have” any direct or indirect role in the governance of Gaza. It envisions a transitional authority of technocrats led by Tony Blair, the former British Prime Minister, and supervised by a “board of peace” chaired by President Trump. This is hoped to pave the way for the return of the Palestinian Authority to run Gaza, after it meets a series of demands and tests, following which, conditions may finally be in place for a “credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood.”   The vague promise of a “pathway” to Palestinian independence is reminiscent of past negotiations, when invoking the promise of an eventual Palestinian state had become a smokescreen to camouflage what was already a cruel, unjust, and explosive reality; it predictably led to the immense violence witnessed over the past two years. A reluctant accommodation To achieve a lasting peace, the cessation of violence needs to be followed by transformative steps on a path to Palestinian freedom and independence, in peaceful coexistence with Israel. Even as half of all Americans see Israeli actions in Gaza as genocide and a majority of Jewish Americans see them as war crimes, Trump has rarely expressed empathy with Palestinian civilians or seemed to have been moved by their suffering. His original ideas about Gaza included a plan that excluded its people. Like President Joe Biden, Trump vetoed UN Security Council resolutions calling for a ceasefire. During the negotiations, and in his dramatic social media post announcing the ceasefire, Trump’s stated focus has primarily been on the release of the Israeli hostages. The Israeli government also sees this agreement as a hostage release agreement. They see the ceasefire and withdrawing their military to a boundary, which reduces the Israeli military control of Gaza from more than 80% of the strip’s area to 58% as the price they pay for the return of the hostages. There is no evidence yet that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the extremists in his government have been fully convinced by this deal to abandon their stated expansionist plans in Gaza and the West Bank. There is a risk they might see every bit of vagueness in the agreement as an opportunity to test the waters. Anything from Hamas’s refusal to accept terms of transitional period, completely disarming, or a violent incident could become a pretext to violate the ceasefire. By breaking the ceasefire agreement in March, Netanyahu has already demonstrated that he needs little excuse to violate a deal if it ceases to serve his broader strategic and political goals. To implement the first phase of the deal, Hamas has agreed to release all the Israeli hostages it is holding, deceased and alive. This is a breakthrough as the group had insisted in the past that releasing every hostage would be conditional on a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. Public anger in Israel has been understandably focused on pushing the Netanyahu government to get back the hostages held by Hamas. And Hamas saw holding the Israeli hostages as leverage, and key to getting Palestinian prisoners released. Few fully understand the importance of the prisoners’ issue among Palestinians as hundreds of thousands of Palestinians have been arrested throughout the decades of occupation, without serious recourse, affecting nearly every family. Israel is holding about 11, 000 Palestinians, including about 400 children, and retains the capacity to arrest as many more as it desires. And Israel will be releasing around 2,000 Palestinian prisoners held without charges, most of whom were arrested in the past two years. Clearly, the pressure on Hamas to accept the release of all Israeli hostages in the first phase must have been enormous. Reportedly Hamas was persuaded by Qatar and Turkey that holding the hostages had become more of a liability than an asset for the group. Hostage release is also likely to give Netanyahu far more domestic space on Gaza policy. A lasting peace To pull off a lasting settlement to the conflict, will take efforts by the American president worthy of a Nobel Peace prize. On Israel and Palestine, every U.S. president in recent decades, including Trump, has been part of the problem instead of being part of the solution. President Biden singularly stands out in his callous enabling of the horrors inflicted on Gaza for more than a year. On Trump’s watch, Israel killed more than 20 children every day with complete American military, economic, and diplomatic support. Yet it would be a stunning achievement if President Trump succeeds in bringing about an equitable and enduring end to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. For that to happen, Trump would have to do what no American president has been able to do in recent decades: Stop shielding Israel from the consequences of its expansionist behavior that violates international laws and norms. It may take an unconventional, mercurial president like Trump to pull it off. But to assume that he cares enough, has the bandwidth or the skill to pull it off is relying on too much hope. It is a prayer.